29N · Polls and publications
40dB. flash poll: PP 31.9%, PSOE 28.1% and Vox 18.9%
Event: · Published
Source published: · Reviewed:
800 online interviews on 7–8 October. The central estimate assigns PP 132 seats, PSOE 112 and Vox 66; PP–Vox would total 198 of 350 if realised. Includes votes, seats, methodology and support scenarios.
Votuo · 29N
Estimated vote · 40dB.
Data reviewed: .
These are vote estimates, not counted votes. “—” means a value is not separately published, not zero. Dates, populations and models differ. We calculate no average or probability of winning.
View the four-poll overview and differences →Estimated vote · 40dB.
Interviews: October 7, 2026 – October 8, 2026 · n = 800 · CAWI
Shared zero-based scale: 0–40% of votes.
Main scenario with separate lists. Party seat ranges are not joint intervals; their endpoints are not added.
Original data · EL PAÍS · Cadena SER ↗All poll data
| Party / list | Estimated vote | Estimated seats | Published party seat range |
|---|---|---|---|
| PP | 31.9% | 132 | 123–140 |
| PSOE | 28.1% | 112 | 105–117 |
| Vox | 18.9% | 66 | 63–74 |
| Sumar / Frente Amplio | 5.3% | 5 | 5–7 |
| Podemos | 2.3% | 2 | 2–2 |
| SALF | 1.8% | 0 | — |
| ERC | — | 8 | — |
| Junts | — | 7 | — |
| EH Bildu | — | 7 | — |
| EAJ-PNV | — | 6 | — |
| BNG | — | 2 | — |
| CC | — | 1 | — |
| UPN | — | 1 | — |
| Adelante Andalucía | — | 1 | — |
| Other + blank | 11.7% | — | — |
What support would add up to
Hypothetical sums, not announced agreements. 176 seats allow investiture at the first vote. Below that, abstentions may permit a simple majority at the second vote. Political feasibility and a shared programme require negotiation.
| Hypothetical support | 40dB. |
|---|---|
| PP | 132 / 350Below the threshold · 176 |
| PP + Vox | 198 / 350Meets the threshold · 176 |
| PSOE + Sumar + Podemos | 119 / 350Below the threshold · 176 |
| PSOE + Sumar + Podemos + ERC + EH Bildu + EAJ-PNV + BNG + Junts | 149 / 350Below the threshold · 176 |
| PP + PSOE | 244 / 350Meets the threshold · 176 |
CIS publishes no seats. GAD3 is excluded from support calculations because its text and chart disagree. Only complete central allocations of 350 seats are used; independent ranges are not added and national percentages are not proportionally converted into seats.
Explore an investiture vote
Your scenario changes support, not estimated votes or seats. It does not predict agreements.
For: 198 · Against: 152 · Abstain: 0
First vote · 176 needed: Meets the threshold.
Second vote · more votes for than against: Meets the threshold.
Which measures would enter negotiations
A poll does not measure future legislation. These are conditional implications of published positions, not shared 29N manifestos or assessments of their outcomes. An agreement needs votes, funding, legislative procedures and respect for devolved powers and the European framework.
Housing and taxation
A government supported by PP and Vox would negotiate PP’s proposed VAT reduction on a first new home alongside Vox’s proposals for construction, repeal of the housing law and national priority for protected housing. Sumar supports seasonal and room rental regulation. An agreement, costs and legal design would determine which proposals could advance.
Regularisation and immigration
Vox opposes extraordinary regularisation; PSOE supports it. More Vox seats would increase its ability to bring that opposition into negotiations with PP, without automatically making it PP policy or enacted law. An alternative majority would negotiate continuity and conditions with its partners; polling does not settle those agreements.
Pensions: a relevant shared position
PP and PSOE have expressed support for CPI-linked pensions. A changed majority does not itself imply abandoning that adjustment. Funding and legislative packaging would also be negotiated: PP has called for a separate measure. Disagreement over a package should be distinguished from opposition to pension adjustments.
How this overview was compiled
Cutoff: publications from 1–14 October 2026 located and checked against primary sources. The most recent reviewed national Congress poll from each institute is included. This first overview covers four institutes, not an exhaustive inventory of every poll. Two publishers of one study are not counted as two samples.
We reproduce modelled vote estimates, not raw voting intention, and preserve published groupings. Pollsters are neither weighted nor adjusted, and CIS is not excluded for disagreeing. An average would mix methodological choices not yet validated here. Missing data are labelled, not replaced by zero or normalised to 100%.
Small differences and differences between institutes do not themselves establish a time trend. Sampling error does not cover all uncertainty from turnout, nonresponse, weighting or seat conversion. No winning probabilities are published; party ranges are not treated as a joint interval for a coalition.
Download data (CSV) ↓Methodology and sources
40dB. · EL PAÍS · Cadena SER
- Published
- October 9, 2026
- Interviews
- October 7, 2026 – October 8, 2026
- Completed interviews · CAWI
- 800
- Population
- Residents of Spain aged 18+ with voting rights, excluding Ceuta and Melilla.
- Sampling and weighting
- The linked technical sheet does not detail panel recruitment or weighting.
- Reported uncertainty
- The source reports ±3.5 points at 95%. This sheet does not establish probability sampling; we do not treat this as an interval for modelled vote estimates.
Main scenario with separate lists. Party seat ranges are not joint intervals; their endpoints are not added.
40dB.’s main scenario estimates Sumar / Frente Amplio at 5.3%, Podemos at 2.3% and SALF at 1.8%. Their central seat estimates are five, two and zero respectively. The report also publishes individual party ranges and a separate unified-list scenario. These are kept separate: merging lists can change responses and territorial seat allocation, not merely add percentages. The technical sheet reports 800 online interviews and excludes Ceuta and Melilla.
Votuo analysis
In this allocation PP and Vox would exceed 176 with 198 seats; PSOE, Sumar and Podemos would total 119. These are arithmetic conditions within an estimate, not confirmed agreements. Individual party minima and maxima are not added into a joint range. The reported sampling error does not cover all model uncertainty. The updated 14 October overview compares this study with GAD3, Sigma Dos and CIS, whose vote estimate puts a different party first.
Editorial interpretation: implications and open questions based on the cited sources.
How to read this update
Published estimates are compared with their limitations documented. Support sums are arithmetic scenarios, not evidence of a political agreement or future majority.