CEO, Sigma Dos and Ipsos place PSC first by votes but disagree about ERC, Junts, Vox and Aliança. Ipsos ties PSC and Aliança in Catalan Parliament seats. We separate Catalonia’s 29N Congress seats from a hypothetical Catalan Parliament election: votes, ranges, comparisons with 2023 and 2024, possible support and public-policy implications.
CEO · Sigma Dos / El Mundo · Ipsos / La Vanguardia
40dB., GAD3 and Sigma Dos place PP first; CIS places PSOE first. Vox exceeds its 2023 result in all four estimates. We compare data, methods and hypothetical support, using 176 seats as the threshold and without averaging different models.
800 online interviews on 7–8 October. The central estimate assigns PP 132 seats, PSOE 112 and Vox 66; PP–Vox would total 198 of 350 if realised. Includes votes, seats, methodology and support scenarios.
